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The internet and the railroad bubble - or how to predict a technomania
Filed in archive Global Economy by tj on August 1, 2008
The internet and the railroad bubble - or how to predict a technomania
© h.koppdelaney
Andrew Odlyzko sends an update about one of his latest lectures about how similar the times in 1998 - 2001 and 1845 - 1848 really were. Some striking arguments in there.

However it's always easy to say because no we know it's a bubble. But back in 1999 it was not that easy as you never know exactly where the growth stops. What is overheating and what is 'real growth? China's FDI and GDP keeps growing every year - sustainable or not? so far yes. Japan's growth from 1980-1990 a bubble? yes we know now but in 1988? Hard to say.

The housing market a bubble? Yes we knew that one but in 1998 housing a bubble? Maybe...


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