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Venture Capital
by tj on April 1, 2004
Bill Gurley writes in his excellent latest newsletter issue how even bigger broadband pipes will effect the future of cable and telecommunication companies.
"What is most striking about the notion of a 45 megabit IP connection is the overwhelming universality of such an incredibly high-speed packet-based conduit. Into it melt all forms of media and communications - voice, data, video, and any other application or service you might imagine. There is no need to consider bringing multiple connections or service providers into your home, for this network can do everything you need and more. Early signs in Japan are consistent with this notion. Yahoo BB announced a stunning 80% Attachment rate on its IP-based phone service. It is now promoting an IP-based set-top box for the ultimate in personalized television."Wired also contributed a great article about Softbanks new investments in broadband some month ago.
"It is a common macro-economic understanding that marginal pricing will eventually approach marginal cost, assuming a competitive environment. As long as there are "enough" providers of high-speed IP connections for each home, and assuming that the government does not impose regulations that hamper market forces, voice should one day be absolutely free. Already, any two broadband users anywhere in the world can make wonderfully free voice calls using the peer-to-peer client from Skype. Those that question the quality of these calls have obviously not used the product. Now, while voice should be free, that doesn't mean that it will be free."
"Softbank has spent close to $2 billion building out a gigabit Ethernet network and leasing copper wire from Japanese telecom giant Nippon Telegraph and Telephone. The result is a service, offered under the Yahoo! BB brand, that provides Internet access to Japanese homes at 12 megabits per second - eight times faster than what Americans are used to - for about $21 a month. Every day, as many as 7,000 new subscribers fire up their plug-and-play DSL modems, making Yahoo! BB the world's fastest-growing broadband service."
As advertised, the picture is every bit as crisp as a DVD. The system is also cheaper to deploy than fiber; upgrading a DSL household to TV-over-IP can cost a provider as little as $300, compared with the thousands necessary to build and maintain last-mile fiber. That's why Softbank headquarters teems with a stream of American and European delegations, all keen to learn more about Son's network and video-over-DSL approach. A few days after my visit, a group from Alcatel was slated to fly in, check out the demo, and head right back to Paris."
"Too bad no one's gawking at the business model. It's unlikely that Yahoo! BB customers will spend another $21 a month, and an $83 installation fee, for 19 to 22 channels and a pay-per-view service. Hashimoto dreams of offering thousands of movies, but that means striking deals with Hollywood studios, notoriously jealous guardians of their content. And if Yahoo! BB can't upsell, it's toast. "
Permalink: the broadband dream
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