the bet against terror

Filed in archive Politics on July 30, 2003

While it sounds crazy at first hand to bet real money on terror incidents, like the DARPA futures market suggest, it can be a much more exact tool to predict terror. Instead it has been furiously critizised in the media.
It is very unsatisfying that this remedy which could have been a very progressive indicator of the likeliness of terror events has found such an end. Tim Oren is elaborating more deeply on the economic viability, but I feel it's just wrongly sold to the public. A better story about and a nicer marketing could have avoided the crash now.