space travel and silicon valley entrepreneurs

Filed in archive Entrepreneurship on August 7, 2003

More and more valley entrepreneurs have developed a special faith for human space travel and reusable launch vehicles (RLVs).

Dennis Tito, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and others are managing or investing on a new generation for space travel. The idea is the creation of a framework for commercial space travel. A study highlights a 20-year forecast (!) that indicate commercial space travel could manifest into a $1 billion industry by 2021. These findings are the basis for commercial space entrepreneurs deciding whether to enter the space tourism industry. Better not is what you may think. Estimated commercial launch revenues will dip in 2005. Several launching companies are in financial trouble already. Sure you have to consider the rather old technology, they are using, partly 30 years old.

Elon Musk, SpaceX CEO says, "At this point, we are very comfortable that selling the Falcon for six million dollars per flight is economically viable."

Alas by law, any U.S. commercial space launch activity requires a Federal Aviation Administration launch license. Burt Rutan has claimed that the cost of compliance could be ten times as great as the vehicle's development costs. A congress hearing has been underway in July. It gives good insight in the broader ideas.

Personally I have many doubts. Is having a ride really that much in demand, considering the still seven digit bill? Will there be so many more commercial cargo flights? It all sounds very much like Iridium & Co., which burned some billions to end with just 30.000 users in bankruptcy.