Predictions New and Old

Filed in archive Technology on January 2, 2005

The Blogosphere is full of predictions for 2005. So I would love to share my pieces as well. But first let's check what happened with my 2004 predictions:

"RFID
The hypewill continue, as well as the rather slow growth in real world
applications, but it's a technology that will shape the world, it's
unstoppable. We will see the stream of VC continue to flow.

Social Software
Is a clever idea, although it was there in 1999 already with Six
Degrees it's now in the mind of users. Social Software providers will
figure out several clever approaches to sell products and services
through their networks. We'll see more start-ups with funding and some
demises. I'm pretty sure the first German funding in this sector will
come as well.

VoIP
VoIP will get big. Vonage will lead the pack, but user numbers will continue to rise as well as revenues. There are still many hurdles to take, but the time is about right.

Digital Content
Hardly noticed by the public this sector will flourish enormously.
Music and movie downloads, dating and other sectors will see their
revenues rise.

Weblogs
What should I say, it's a revolution :-)

Outsourcing/ BPO
More big outsourcing deals will be announced as well as several
fundings, maybe we'll see a funding for a non-US based BPO company as
well.

Nanotechnology
It's still more a buzzword than real available technology, 2004 will hardly bring a breakthrough.

Space Launch
The X-Prize will be taken in 2004

Wifi
Wifi with 802.11x is now in the minds of most consumers. The next generation of faster standards might make headlines."

Indeed I was not too precise with my predictions which makes comparison a bit odd.

- RFID: Anita at our RFID Weblog is preaching the real value of RFID again and again. Many investments have happened as well.

- Social Software has seen many ups and Downs. Many new companies have been started some have gone bust. The business models vary - no surprise as Social Networking is a more a sales channel than a business model.

- VoIP is more then big - probably buzz of the year. I didn't predict Skype's super-string growth though

- Digital Content is a powerful trend before 2004 and in 2004. The Jamba exit is one of the prominent examples how valuable this business has become.

- Weblogs I'm more and more fascinated by this technology. However the actual hype is misleading.

- BPO fundings have been around most of the year. BPO is becoming more and more commonplace as a business practice.

- Nanotech - maybe it's me but I only hear promise of nanotech and hardly about fundings/ successful companies.

- X-Prize - has been taken as predicted. Congratulations.

- Wifi - everybody seems to have it now. Wimax is slow to get traction.

Wow seems I was not too far away from reality. Read more about 2005 predictions in the next entry.