Fooled by randomness

Filed in archive Global Economy on March 20, 2005

I just finished Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book 'Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets'. An Awful long title but it is indeed an entertaining book. Nassim was a bon trader at Wall Street for most of his life. He has developed a sophisticated strategy to bet on uncommon occurrences and risks. As a centerpiece he buys out of-the-money options (probably mostly puts) and waits patiently for bad things to happen that do disrupt the (stock or bond) market downwards (Terror or war).

His insights and anecdotes he shares are amazing and entertaining. He probably has the best hedging strategy in his business life I ever came across and shows how much depends on luck (or randomness) in life.

The only downsides the book tends to repeat itself in the latter chapters. So in case you have given up at page 150 - you don't have to despair.