Wired dissects the revenue plans of the new commercial space fleet programs. Apparently the most important revenue stream in the beginning will be the satellite launch market.

""Our prices will be below the Russians, and they will be fixed and open prices," he said. "We're trying to introduce plain dealing into this industry. A Falcon launch will cost $6 million, and a Falcon V launch will cost $12 million."

That would put SpaceX costs at one quarter of the going rates.

"They are probably doing it at one quarter of the price per pound to get into orbit, but the vehicle is probably not going to carry large communications satellites needed by the industry now," said David Cavossa, director of the Satellite Industry Association, a trade group representing the commercial satellite industry. "Nobody's really doing small commercial payloads, so I don't know what market SpaceX is aiming at. The launch industry is in the worst shape. It's the toughest time."

The Satellite Industry Association and industry consultant Futron reported that 2002 worldwide satellite launch revenues totaled $3.7 billion, with the U.S. market taking $1 billion of that. By comparison, 2000 revenues reached a high of $5.3 billion, with U.S. companies accounting for nearly half. "

I expressed my doubts earlier, but passengers might change the economics, once it is feasible bringing people into space.

####Update:

There is another interesting article about the topic here.