China on the horizon

Filed in archive Global Economy on March 2, 2004

The NYT analyzes the new economic threat from China:

"Chinese wages, though, were no more than 4 percent of American and Japanese wages in 2002, the most recent year available. While official Chinese statistics show that wages doubled from 1996 to 2002, some factory owners say pay has been flat --- or even declined slightly --- in recent years, as rural migrants continue to pour into the cities.

In the meantime, China's productivity gap is being closed by a rapid investment in infrastructure, as China puts a third of the world's steel production and half its cement into extending modern roads, power grids and telecommunications links across the country."

My gut feel is that China as well as India are much hyped in public awareness compared to their real economic influence. I feel there will be a bubble burst, but let's see who's bet wins.